HR Forecasting Techniques

HR Forecasting Techniques:

1.      Managerial Judgment:

a.       Manager sit together

b.      Discuss

c.       Arrive at a figure (Number)

d.      Bottom-top and top-bottom approach

2.      Ratio Trend Analysis:

a.       Quickest forecasting techniques

b.      Involves studying past ratios

c.       Ratio between number of workers and sales

d.      Considering some allowance for changes in organization or its methods

3.      Regression Analysis:

a.       Similar to ratio-trend analysis

b.      Relationship between sales and workforce size

c.       Number of employees required for each volume of sales

d.      Modeling and analyzing several variables

e.       Relationship between dependent and independent variable

4.      Work study technique:

a.       Length of operation

b.      Amount of labor

c.       Planned hours for the period

5.      Delphi Technique:

a.       Estimating of personnel needs from a group of experts

b.      HRP experts act as intermediate, summarizes the various response and report feedback to experts

c.       Process repeated until experts’ opinions begin to agree

d.      Absence of interaction among experts

6.      Flow Models: Forecasting personnel needs

a.       Markow Model

b.      Determine the time should be covered

                                                              i.      Shorter lengths are much more accurate

                                                            ii.      Time horizon depends on HR plan and HR plan depends on strategic plan

c.       Establish Categories (states)

                                                              i.      Categories, to which employees can be assigned

                                                            ii.      Categories must not overlap

                                                          iii.      The number of states can neither be too large or/nor too small

d.      Count movements(flows) , annual movements among states for several time periods

e.       These states ate defined as absorbing (gains and losses to the company) or non-absorbing ( change in position level or employment status)

f.        Losses: Death, disabilities, absences, resignation and retirement

g.       Gains: Hiring, rehiring, transfers, movement by position level

h.      Estimate the probability of transition from one state to another on the basis of past trends

i. Demand is a function of replacing those who make a transition.